Science
The Science Behind Ocean Change
It’s impossible to talk about our changing oceans without delving a little deeper into the science behind these changes. The following offers a brief outline of the current understanding within the mainstream scientific community.  An Introduction to Climate ChangeThe sun gives off energy in the form of short-wave radiation. This heats our planet’s surface which, in turn, emits some of this energy back out in the form of long-wave radiation.
Carbon dioxide molecules in the atmosphere don’t absorb the incoming solar energy, but they do trap and radiate some of the Earth’s outgoing long-wave energy into the air around them, thus acting like the glass of a greenhouse and causing the atmosphere to warm up - the so-called 'greenhouse effect'.
There is a natural flow of carbon throughout the Earth System, between the land, the sea and the sky, and the ‘greenhouse effect’ is a phenomenon that has always existed. However, levels of carbon dioxide have been increasing, especially since the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 2009 the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased from 280 to 387 parts per million [1]. This has unbalanced the natural cycle, amplifying the greenhouse effect.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are higher today than they have been for at least the last 800,000 years [2]. Earth has been feeling the effects of this change, leading to a host of environmental responses.
Two are of particular relevance to the Catlin Arctic Survey 2010: the first is the widely publicized reduction in the sea ice cover on the Arctic Ocean, the loss of which will lead to further climate change [3]; the second is an increase in acidification of the oceans at large. Both are commonly held to be attributable to the increase in atmospheric CO2 levels.  Ocean AcidificationIt isn’t only Earth’s atmosphere that’s subject to increasing CO2 levels; about a quarter of all CO2 emissions are absorbed by the Earth’s oceans, at a rate of more than 20 million tons per day [4,5]. Although this means the seas effectively reduce the impacts of this ‘greenhouse gas’ on climate, this benefit does not come without a cost.
The absorption of CO2 by the oceans plays an important role in defining the pH of its surface saltwater. They are currently slightly alkaline - with an average pH of around 8.1. Pure freshwater, by contrast, is neutral, with a pH close to 7.0.
When CO2 dissolves in seawater it forms a weak acid, called carbonic acid. The oceans naturally accommodate these changes, but the rate at which atmospheric CO2 is currently increasing is too quick for their natural buffering systems. This leads to a slight decrease in pH, or ocean acidification. We know that the oceans have lowered in pH by 0.1 units (from 8.2) since pre-industrial levels [6,7,8]. Such a value may seem small, but because of the scale that pH is measured on (a log scale), this is equivalent to a 30% increase in terms of actual acidity (as defined by concentration of hydrogen ions).
If global emissions of CO2 from human activities continue to rise on current trends, the average pH of the oceans could fall by a further 0.3 to 0.5 units by 2100, up to a three-fold increase in acidity (as defined by concentration of hydrogen ions) since pre-industrial levels [9,10]. This is a lower pH than anything that has been experienced for many millions of years [11] and the rate of change is estimated to be 100 times faster than at any other time during this period.
Since CO2 is more easily absorbed in cold waters, scientists believe the polar oceans will be the first to experience the impact and may become corrosive to the shells and armour-plating of some marine creatures within decades [10,12]. This could not only threaten individual species, but also habitats and ecosystems, with potential impacts being felt beyond the oceans.
Even if atmospheric CO2 concentrations are held at their current level, it is expected to take many thousands of years for surface water pH to return to pre-industrial levels [13]. But we can try to understand the potential impacts and learn how to deal with them if and when they happen.  Sea Ice LossThe extent of sea ice in the Arctic is decreasing; thirty years of satellite measurements have shown a continual decline, beyond natural variations, averaging 11.7% a decade in summer and 2.7% a decade in winter [14].
From 1981 to 2000, multiyear ice (that which survives for one or more summer melt seasons and increases in thickness year on year) made up on average 30% of winter sea ice cover. By March 2009, only 10% of Arctic sea ice was more than 2 years old [15].
In the spring of 2009, surface measurements were taken by the Catlin Arctic Survey of the thickness of the sea ice cover in the northernmost Beaufort Sea area, near the North Pole. The findings from this Survey, taken together with decades of existing measurements by submarines, satellites and buoys, led scientists from the University of Cambridge to suggest there is a significant probability that by around 2020 only 20% of the Arctic Ocean basin will have sea ice cover in the late summertimes [15].
By 2030-40, there is a significant probability that the white 'North Pole ice', one of our planet's defining year-round surface features as viewed from space, will have been transformed into an entirely blue, open ocean in the summers [16]. The sea ice will have become a seasonal feature only.
Of particular relevance to Catlin Arctic Survey 2010 is the fact that the Arctic Ocean is expected to become more acidic as the sea ice melts and more cold, open waters are exposed to the higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Whilst this large reduction in sea ice cover may be happening at the far northern end of the world, Earth’s processes are ever-changing and interconnected. As such, rapid loss of sea ice and a warming Arctic is likely to have not just local or regional impacts, but also far-reaching effects for the Northern Hemisphere and beyond.
Research Projects
Research into the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, and the associated changing climate, is a rapidly expanding field, but there are still many key questions that remain unanswered. As such, this year’s Catlin Arctic Survey seeks to capture as much data as possible across a range of important topics. If you’re interested in reading more about what our scientists and explorers will be up to, click on any of the research project summaries below.
Throughout this website our objective has been to present the often highly technical and complex emerging science of ocean acidification in an accessible, informative and engaging way while at all times seeking to retain accuracy, balance and neutrality. With this in mind, if you think we could express some aspect better, we would be pleased to hear from at info@catlinarcticsurvey.com.
 | Potential Response
Acidification may detrimentally alter Arctic marine life biodiversity.
Research
Using special seawater aquaria, what biological differences do we observe in Arctic Ocean marine life when we place them in an atmosphere reflecting current CO2 levels, as well as those we can expect in 2100 if they continue to increase at the current rate? more >>> |
 | Potential Response
Acidification may detrimentally alter Arctic Ocean marine food sources.
Research
If we directly acidify seawater, how does this affect Arctic Ocean molluscs that are a key source of food for fish stocks?
more >>> |
 | Potential Response
Increasing CO2 absorption may interfere with the ability of vital Arctic marine life to remain buoyant.
Research
Does increasing CO2 in Arctic seawater affect levels of the sticky polymer particles produced by plankton and bacteria that affect their buoyancy?
more >>> |
 | Potential Response
More rapid sea ice melt may accelerate the detrimental effects of acidification and its related processes.
Research
If we analyze sea-ice cores, do they reveal that melting will actually release useful compound that will temporarily slow the effects of acidification?
more >>> |
 | Potential Response
Increasing acidification may speed the breakdown of organic matter by bacteria, reducing oxygen levels, affecting marine life and potentially releasing other greenhouse gases.
Research
If we analyze different gas levels in the Arctic Ocean, do they show that acidification is correlated with increasing biological breakdown of organic matter?
more >>> |
 | Potential Response
If sea ice is acting as a barrier to carbon dioxide, atmospheric CO2 may flood in during the summer melt, increasing acidification levels.
Research
How does sea ice affect the flow of CO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere and what does this mean for acidification when the sea ice melts?
more >>> |
 | Potential Response
Continued sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean will not only impact on wildlife and local communities, but also set in motion powerful feedbacks which may amplify and accelerate the consequences of global climate change.
Research
How will a second year of data collection on Arctic sea ice thickness help further our understanding of sea ice dynamics?
more >>> |
 | Scientific Context
Ocean change is an emerging topic, and research in the Arctic is difficult to undertake. As such, it is vital that as much analysis and interpretation be undertaken so that multiple conclusions can be drawn.
Research
How can we capture as much relevant, useful and valid data during our time in the Arctic, and how can this be shared amongst the scientific community, enabling as many ocean change experts benefit from the Survey as possible?
more >>> |
Science Partners
The Catlin Arctic Survey 2010 is pleased to be working with some of the world’s leading scientific institutions, and our partners fall into three categories.
Our Ice Base Partners have research representatives out in the Arctic, undertaking analysis of their collected data both there and back at their respective institutions. They will also be undertaking analysis of the information captured by the Explorer Team. Our Resultant Data Analysis Partners are undertaking further analysis but don't have a researcher on the ice. The Special Interest Scientific Groups will be concerned with the outcomes and conclusions drawn from the research.
ICE BASE PARTNERS  | PML is a dynamic provider of scientific advice, research and solutions on the marine environment, based in the southwest of England.
Its aim is to further understand the detailed processes that underpin marine ecosystems and the unique bio-resources they contain. In doing so, researchers can look to develop suitable ways to deliver a sustainable basis for their management.
PML have contributed vital research for both UK and international bodies for over 30 years, tackling areas of major concern to humankind such as global change, pollution, sustainability and ocean acidification.
|
 | Laboratoire Oceanographie (Villefranche) is internationally regarded as a leading marine research institute and educational facility, bringing together approximately 30 scientists from a variety of disciplines in oceanography. These include biology, biogeochemistry, geochemistry and physics.
Given the multidisciplinary nature of oceanography, LOV fosters collaborations amongst marine scientists at the national, European and international level.
LOV is one of two research units composing the Villefranche-sur-mer Oceanological Observatory (OOV), and comes under the umbrella of Pierre and Marie Curie University and the CRNS, France’s largest governmental research organization and the largest fundamental science agency in Europe.
|
 | Located on Vancouver Island, the Institute of Ocean Sciences (IOS) is one of Canada’s largest marine institutes.
An important link in Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s nationwide chain of nine major scientific facilities, the institute is the centre for research on coastal waters of British Columbia, the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, the western Canadian Arctic and navigable fresh waters east to the Alberta border.
The Institute of Ocean Sciences has earned international recognition for its work in ocean sciences. More than 250 scientists and researchers are dedicated to providing up-to-date information on all elements of oceanography, including fisheries and ocean research, environmental science and hydrography.
Studies range from the effects of global warming on marine ecosystems, to contaminants in Arctic ice, the nature of oil spills, and even predictions on where and when a tsunami will strike.
|
 | The School of Geography at the University of Exeter boasts a lively, thriving and innovative environment, with an international reputation for research.
Because of this reputation for excellence, the department’s staff attracts research funding from a host of national and international bodies, including the UK Environment Agency, DEFRA, Royal Geographical Society, the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Over the next three years the University is investing £80 million in key areas of science research, including climate change and sustainable futures.
|
 | Bangor University was founded in 1884, and now has more than 10,000 students, 26 academic schools and more than 600 teaching staff.
Bangor has a strong research base across a spectrum of academic disciplines engaging in research at national and international levels. The university provides strong support for research activities including encouraging links with commercial and industrial bodies in the UK and overseas.
Its mission is to be a world-class research-led university, to provide teaching and learning of the highest quality, and to contribute to the development of the economy, health and culture of a sustainable Wales and a sustainable world.
|
 | The National Centre for Earth Observation is a partnership of scientists and institutions, from a range of disciplines, who are using data from Earth observation satellites to monitor global and regional changes in the environment and to improve understanding of the Earth system so that we can predict future environmental conditions.
Their vision is to unlock the full potential of Earth observation to monitor, diagnose and predict climate and environmental changes, ensuring that these scientific advances are delivered to the wider community embedded in world class science.
|
RESULTANT DATA ANALYSIS PARTNERS  | The Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP) has a 50-year tradition of carrying out research of world-class excellence in a broad range of subjects across applied mathematics and theoretical physics.
Members of DAMTP have made seminal theoretical advances in the development of mathematical techniques as well as in the application of mathematics, combined with physical reasoning, to many different areas of science.
DAMPT is home to Britain’s leading expert on Arctic Ocean sea ice processes and status, Professor Peter Wadhams, who combines extensive fieldwork experience with theoretical ocean physics. He has offered his department’s practical support to build on last year’s sea ice loss Survey results, analyzing and interpreting the sea ice data being gathered by the Explorer Team.
|
 | The School of GeoSciences at the University of Edinburgh is a leading interdisciplinary group of over 100 academic and research specialists researching the Earth's geology, atmosphere, oceans, biosphere and human responses and roles in this complex interplay. The micrometeorology group in the school of GeoSciences studies the interaction of the atmosphere and earth surface using both practical and theoretical approaches. They have experience modeling atmospheric transport on scales of continent to point, and decades of experience measuring ecosystem trace gas exchange; in addition they are a world leader in providing software tools for trace gas flux analysis. With the purchase and commissioning of a research aircraft, the group has successfully expanded to airborne measurements of trace gas concentrations, fluxes and remote sensing. |
 | The University of British Columbia (UBC) holds an international reputation for excellence in advanced research and learning.
It ranks amongst the top universities worldwide, a status achieved largely through its inspiring openness to ideas, perspectives and ways of exploration that make breakthrough and discovery possible.
The Department of Microbiology & Immunology, responsible for research into the impacts of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems, is internationally recognized for contributions in microbiology, molecular biology and immunology.
|
SPECIAL INTEREST SCIENTIFIC GROUPS  | EPOCA was launched in June 2008 for four years. It has the overall aim of documenting ocean acidification, investigating its impact on biological processes, predicting the consequences over the next 100 years, and advising policy-makers on potential thresholds or tipping points that should not be exceeded.
The EPOCA consortium brings together more than 100 researchers from 27 leading oceanographic institutions across Europe. There are nine countries involved, comprising Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
The project synchronizes with other major national and international projects and is coordinated by Jean-Pierre Gattuso, a researcher at the Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche (LOV).
|
 | The CARBOOCEAN Consortium was created on 1st January 2005 with the main task of determining the ocean’s quantitative role for uptake of CO2.
With this scientific knowledge, it is hoped that the risks of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be understood, and judgments on the expected consequences made. This will help guide the development of appropriate mitigation actions, such as the management of CO2 emission reductions within a global context.
CARBOCEAN consists of 47 international groups working on integrated research activity on the marine carbon cycle. The participating countries are Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The project is funded by the European Commission.
|
Science Team
HELEN FINDLAY  Plymouth Marine Laboratory Helen studied for her Bachelors degree in biology at the University of York, before having a gap year in South America where she spent most of her time trekking in the Andes, climbing her first 6000m peak.
After travelling she completed an MSc in Oceanography at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, and then moved to Plymouth to do a PhD in biological oceanography at Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML).
She has just completed her PhD studying the effects of global warming and ocean acidification on marine organisms. She has now been awarded the Lord Kingsland Fellowship at PML to continue her research.
She is particularly interested in understanding the biological, physical and chemical interactions within the marine environment, focusing on organism responses and their ability to cope with a changing environment, such as through global warming and ocean acidification, particularly in the Arctic environment. LAURA EDWARDS  Bangor University Laura Edwards is a researcher at Bangor University studying the flux of carbon dioxide through sea ice and gaps in the sea ice, known as polynyas. Her research background is in oceanography, glaciology and remote sensing.
She first became interested in polar region research in 2004 when she started her PhD at the University of Bristol on satellite measurements of ice flow velocity of the Antarctic ice sheet. In 2009 she started her sea ice post at Bangor University and also took part in fieldwork in southwest Greenland studying the links between hydrology and ice dynamics on Leverett glacier.
She loves being outdoors and enjoys taking part in sporting events. She has spent a month trekking at altitude in the Indian Himalayas (traversing glaciers and summiting a 6000 m peak), taken part in mountain marathons and competed in the sport of rowing for over 16 years. CERI LEWIS  University of Exeter Ceri Lewis is a marine biologist interested in how environmental change affects reproductive processes in marine animals.
She has always had a passion for marine wildlife. She completed her undergraduate degree in Marine Biology at Swansea University in 1998, followed by a PhD at Newcastle University on the impacts of climate change on reproductive processes in marine worms.
She was then lucky enough to spend three years in Cape Town, developing sustainable aquaculture research in South Africa as part of a Community Development project, before returning to the UK and traditional academia in 2005.
On joining the Ecotoxicology Group at Plymouth University as a postdoctoral researcher, she investigated how pollution disrupts reproduction in a number of marine species.
She currently holds a NERC Independent Research Fellowship at Exeter University, continuing her research on understanding how marine animals adapt and respond to environmental change, such as ocean acidification, climate change and increasing pollution.
When not working Ceri is a keen yachtswoman and enjoys running, surfing and travelling. STEEVE COMEAU  Université Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, Laboratoire Océanographie (Villefranche) Steeve is in his third year of a PhD at the Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche (France). He completed his master studies at the University of Marseille, and his master thesis in Nantes (Ifremer, France) on fish egg genetics.
He is currently working on the impacts of ocean acidification on Mediterranean and Arctic pteropods (small pelagic molluscs). He has also carried out experiments on Mediterranean pteropods (Cavolinia inflexa, Creseis virgula, Limacina inflata) in Villefranche and Monaco (IAEA) to test the impact of different carbonate chemistry parameters on pteropods nutrition, respiration, development and calcification.
This trip will be Steeve’s fourth in the Arctic but the first at an Ice Base. He is looking forward to the opportunity to carry out pH perturbation experiments on pteropods and to collect biological data from this poorly-studied area of the Arctic Ocean. OLIVER WURL  Institute of Ocean Sciences, British Columbia
Oliver Wurl received his BA with diploma from the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences in 1998, and received his PhD from the National University of Singapore in 2006, studying the fate and transport mechanisms of organic pollutants in the Asian marine environment.
His current research field includes the formation and chemical composition of the transparent exopolymer particles and their impact on carbon export to the deep ocean, which has been hypothesized to increase in a “high CO2 environment”.
Dr. Wurl is currently affiliated with the Institute of Ocean Sciences, British Columbia, Canada, as a postdoctoral researcher through a scholarship provided by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). STEVEN HALLAM  University of British Columbia GLENN COOPER  Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
|
|